IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.6	#55
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#262
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.8	#40

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.9	#73

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	3.5%	4.5%	0.6%
Top 6 Seed	7.1%	8.9%	1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	61.0%	64.4%	51.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	6.8%	8.6%	2.8%
Average Seed	11.1	10.8	12.3

.500 or above	98.8%	99.5%	96.8%
.500 or above in Conference	99.2%	99.5%	98.3%
Conference Champion	73.9%	76.8%	65.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	1.6%	1.9%	1.0%
First Round	60.2%	63.5%	50.6%
Second Round	22.6%	25.5%	13.8%
Sweet Sixteen	8.8%	10.2%	4.7%
Elite Eight	3.0%	3.6%	1.4%
Final Four	1.2%	1.4%	0.5%
Championship Game	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 1
Quad 2	2 - 1	2 - 3
Quad 3	8 - 2	10 - 5
Quad 4	14 - 1	24 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2019	169	@ UTEP	W	72-65	75%
Nov 14, 2019	346	Southern	W	81-54	99%
Nov 17, 2019	31	@ Arizona	L	68-73	31%
Nov 21, 2019	92	New Mexico	W	83-75	75%
Nov 25, 2019	179	Colorado St.	W	77-66	84%
Dec 03, 2019	169	UTEP	W	75-62	88%
Dec 07, 2019	157	Washington St.	W	80-71	79%
Dec 10, 2019	305	@ Denver	W	79-64	90%
Dec 14, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	W	80-78	55%
Dec 22, 2019	48	Mississippi St.	L	71-72	49%
Dec 29, 2019	343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	80-54	99%
Jan 04, 2020	228	@ California Baptist	W	79-69	81%
Jan 09, 2020	351	Chicago St.	W	89-59	99%
Jan 11, 2020	234	UMKC	W	78-61	92%
Jan 16, 2020	236	@ Utah Valley	W	77-66	81%
Jan 18, 2020	168	@ Seattle	W	73-66	71%
Jan 25, 2020	230	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	77-67	81%
Jan 30, 2020	197	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	75-60	90%
Feb 01, 2020	137	Grand Canyon	W	77-66	82%
Feb 06, 2020	351	@ Chicago St.	W	86-62	98%
Feb 08, 2020	234	@ UMKC	W	75-64	81%
Feb 13, 2020	168	Seattle	W	76-63	86%
Feb 15, 2020	236	Utah Valley	W	80-63	91%
Feb 22, 2020	230	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	80-64	91%
Feb 27, 2020	137	@ Grand Canyon	W	74-69	66%
Feb 29, 2020	197	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	72-63	77%
Mar 05, 2020	228	California Baptist	W	82-66	91%
Projected Record						22 - 5	14 - 2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.8	4.2	11.4	19.1	22.2	16.1		73.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.8	3.5	5.5	4.2	1.5				15.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.6	2.0	2.3	0.9	0.1					5.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0						2.5	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1								1.2	5th
6th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0									0.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											0.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.0														0.0	9th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.3	3.7	6.8	10.6	15.7	20.6	22.2	16.1			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	16.1		16.1
15-1	100.0%	22.2		21.5	0.7
14-2	92.8%	19.1		16.0	3.1	0.0
13-3	72.5%	11.4		7.3	3.7	0.4
12-4	39.3%	4.2		1.7	1.8	0.6	0.0
11-5	11.1%	0.8		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	2.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	73.9%	73.9		62.7	9.7	1.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	16.1%		88.4%	81.5%	6.9%	7.8		0.2	0.4	0.9	1.8	1.6	1.2	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.8	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0		1.9		37.5%
15-1	22.2%		77.6%	72.2%	5.4%	11.0				0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.5	3.9	5.8	2.5	0.5	0.0		5.0		19.5%
14-2	20.6%		63.0%	61.0%	1.9%	12.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.8	5.4	3.7	1.2	0.1	0.0	7.6		5.0%
13-3	15.7%		53.2%	52.4%	0.8%	12.9										0.0	0.1	0.4	2.7	3.0	1.7	0.4	0.0	7.4		1.6%
12-4	10.6%		42.3%	42.3%	0.0%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.0	6.1		0.0%
11-5	6.8%		30.4%	30.4%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.1	4.7
10-6	3.7%		26.6%	26.6%		14.4													0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	2.7
9-7	2.3%		17.0%	17.0%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.9
8-8	1.1%		11.0%	11.0%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
7-9	0.5%		12.9%	12.9%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
6-10	0.2%		1.6%	1.6%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
5-11	0.1%		16.5%	16.5%		15.5																0.0	0.0	0.1
4-12	0.0%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	0.0
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		61.0%	58.1%	2.8%	11.1		0.2	0.4	0.9	2.0	1.9	1.7	1.4	1.4	2.0	3.1	8.0	16.9	12.2	6.3	2.1	0.5	39.0		6.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.8%	100.0%	3.7	5.0	16.7	22.7	32.1	16.0	5.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	78.1%	5.4		0.9	7.1	18.3	27.2	3.1	9.8	7.6	1.3	2.2		0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	85.9%	6.8				12.6	23.0	5.2	13.3	12.6	2.2	14.1	1.5	1.5